With bearish fears rising on Wall Street, CNBC Pro found stocks that are cheap even in an economic downturn. Key averages are heading towards a loss-making week on Friday. Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve’s announcement this week of its most aggressive rate hike since 1994 could propel the economy into recession. If the earnings forecast is lower, then the stock may continue to rise. This week, analysts at Deutsche Bank said earnings estimates are “very high,” given their base assumption of a slight recession by the end of 2023. He described mega-cap growth and tech stocks as particularly vulnerable to higher expectations. Nevertheless, some stocks can present investors with a “margin of safety” over the long term, even in bearish scenarios. CNBC Pro slashed each company’s 12-month earnings estimates in the S&P 500 by 30% to calculate each stock’s forward price-earnings ratio in a bearish scenario. Then we compared the new recession-adjusted forward P/E to the average P/E of the past five years. To be sure, these are long-term investment opportunities to take advantage of the current sell-off as they should reflect the securities’ true value over time. Here are the 20 cheapest stocks in the S&P 500 in a bearish scenario: Several energy stocks made it to the list. Shares of Occidental Petroleum are expected to sell for 8.8 times its earnings after the bearish adjustments, meaning it will trade at a discount of 65.7% to its 5-year average forward P/E of 25.8. Shares of Valero Energy should trade at a bearish P/E of 12.2, a 54% discount on its 5-year average forward earnings. Shares of Diamondback Energy are expected to trade at 7.9 times earnings, or 33% discount, in the downtrend. Alaska Air may still be cheaper, even after estimates are low. Even after cutting earnings estimates for the recessionary scenario, the airline carrier is expected to trade at a discount of 10.6 times its earnings, or about 63%. United Airlines also made it to the list. In a downturn, the airline’s P/E ratio is expected to be 13.7, or at a 45% discount. Some homebuilders even look like buying opportunities in a bearish scenario. DR Horton’s bearish P/E is 5.2, which would be at a 46% discount to the average forward earnings of the past five years. The bearish P/E of the Lenar is 5.6, which is a 37% discount. PulteGroup’s bearish P/E is 4.7, or about 43% off. Other stocks on the list include Mosaic, Moderna, EOG Resources, Devon Energy, Pioneer Natural Resources, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, PVH, Kotera Energy, Weerheuser, Global Payments and Nucor.
