If history is any guide, investors are in more pain in the fall. In a note to clients Thursday, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett calculated where and when this bear market will end if it matches the average magnitude and length of previous market declines. This isn’t good news for fall investors. “History is no guide for future performance, but if it were, today’s bear market would end on October 19, 2022 (the 35-year anniversary of Black Monday) with the S&P 500 at 3000,” Hartnett said. wrote. This is 18% lower than Thursday’s closing price of 3,666.77. The bank’s chief investment strategist reported that the S&P 500 fell into a bear market on Monday, the 20th drop of this magnitude in the past 140 years. He added that the bear market is down by an average of 37.3% over a period of 289 days. To be sure, this is not Hartnett’s official forecast and the widely followed strategist – who was rightly in a recession this year – believes that investors will be discouraged from reaching such a level. Must buy first. “Once all is done and dusted in H2, opportunity knocks; we say SPX at 36k nibble, 33k bite, at 30k gorge; opportunity in H2 for 2023 bulls,” Hartnett wrote. The S&P 500 is down 6% for the week at Thursday’s close as bearish fears deepen. The equity benchmark is on track for its worst weekly performance since March 2020. The S&P 500 is down about 24% from its all-time high in January. All 11 of its sectors are down at least 15% from their recent highs. “The market is painfully oversold, so ripe for a rally, but unless the rate shock can substantiate the inflation shock, the rallies will be sold,” Hartnett said.